America’s Cycles of Change

Monthly Archive

April 2017

Nothing ever changes in Northern Ireland. It’s caught in a mad eternal time warp that Doctor Who himself couldn’t shift.

This piece originally ran in February 2016 – But its central theme is more relevant than ever: Not only did I predict Hillary’s eventual self-inflicted defeat. But I was able to explain why.

March 2017

The great industrial states of the Northeast and the Midwest were endlessly touted as the Democrats’ vaulted “blue wall.” Instead they turned out to be Hillary Clinton’s Maginot Line.

The more things change, the more they stay the same.

February 2017

This year marks the centennial anniversary of the Bolshevik Revolution and the birth of the Soviet Union. If Russian President Vladimir Putin has spent the past 17 years since being appointed president as Boris Yeltsin’s heir on December 31, 1999 we should expect to see an enormous, endless series of parades, celebrations, regrets and pageantry to engulf the largest country on earth.

However, Donald Trump’s presidency goes, the rejection the Democrats suffered in the major population, old industry states of the so-called Blue Wall looks very unlikely to be reversed by any Democratic national candidate four years from now, or possibly ever.

In 2016, the Democratic Party’s presidential candidate Hillary Clinton compounded the systemic weakness of her own party: Indeed she appeared totally oblivious to it. She ran one of the most inept campaigns in modern US political history.

January 2017

As I predicted in my 2015 book Cycles of Change: The Three Great Cycles of American History & the Coming Crises That Will Lead to the Fourth, a new political map of America has emerged.

In the 2014 midterm elections, the number of Democrats in the Senate and House of Representatives fell to their lowest levels since the Republican landslide of Herbert Hoover over Al Smith in 1928, before the start of the Great Depression. It was as if every Democratic political and electoral gain since the beginning of the New Deal had been wiped out.

The Democrats are rapidly becoming a regional party of the two high-population and high tech, prosperous coasts of the United States but they increasingly appear doomed to eternal minorities across the great continental landmass in between.

In 2008, Barack Obama, the first ever African-American President of the United States, swept his Democratic Party to power in its greatest landslide victory for 44 years since Lyndon Johnson buried Barry Goldwater in 1964.

The results in particular of the 2016 electoral contests demonstrated an extraordinary paradox. Hillary Clinton received well over 65 million votes, one of the three greatest showings of any political candidate of either party in US history. Only Obama himself in 2008 and 2012 has ever won more votes.

The Democratic Party in the United States is the oldest and most long-lasting political party on earth, whether one choses to date its actual founding at the beginning of the 19th century by such luminaries as Thomas Jefferson, Aaron Burr and the Tammany Hall political organization in New York City, or its successful ascent to national power with the triumph of Democratic voting rights for white males in Andrew Jackson’s victorious election campaign in 1828.

By selecting Exxon Mobil President and CEO Rex Tillerson as his first secretary of state, US President-elect Donald Trump has made clear he wants peace with Russia: But he has also declared war on the internal culture of the State Department.

Trump’s selection of Exxon Mobil CEO Rex Tillerson as his secretary of state is highly significant for many reasons. Not the least of them is that Tillerson, in his career as one of the world’s most successful and powerful oil executives, has had an unrivalled experience of successful deal-making and cooperation with the Russian government and the country’s main energy companies.

US President-elect Donald Trump can be taken at his word about his sincerity in wanting to restore good relations with Russia: He is certain to find welcome potential partners in Moscow; but his greatest difficulties with implementing such a policy will be in Washington, DC.

December 2016

The problem of resolving conflicts between not just state but also regional interests were well understood by the Founding Fathers.

Science has degenerated from the uncovering of the infinite complex and unpredictable ways the universe actually works to a conformist, closed-minded consensus. We have regressed from the empiricism of Aristotle to the arrogant, closed-minded fantasies of Plato.

In his keynote foreign policy speech at the Mayflower Hotel in Washington in April 2016, Donald Trump, now the President-elect, showed an admirable awareness of the need to defuse nuclear tensions with the superpowers.

The Electoral College of the United States runs counter to the ideology and ideals of “pure” democracy in that it sometime negates the Popular Will of the clear Majority. But it continues to perform a vital function in keeping the different regions and different prevalent regional interest groups, economic concerns, regional prejudices and perspectives of a huge continental nation in balance with each other.

The Real Threats to the Human Race

Thu, 08 December 2016

The greatest single immediate pollution threat to our world is the mass expansion of our own species.

November 2016

As I write, President-elect Donald Trump appears to be turning towards picking General David Petraeus as his Secretary of State rather than former Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney. Both men are likely to be very hawkish on Russia.

The Hypocrisy of Liberal Hatred

Tue, 29 November 2016

Since the November 8 presidential election, some interesting things have been happening. Former liberal friends by the score have been unfriending my wife Debbie and myself not just because we voted for Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump, but in some cases because they simply suspected us – correctly of course – of so doing so.

Hillary Clinton has shown she lacks Nixon’s patriotism and his sense of honor.

The United States is no longer the invention capital of the world – China is.

It all hinged on the big industrial states: Donald Trump realized this throughout his campaign: Hillary Clinton never did. He realized America was changing: She did not. He won: She lost. Trump read the New Map of America correctly. Clinton never read it at all.

As I predicted in my 2015 book Cycles of Change (Amazon-Kindle and available on this web site the great industrial states of the Northeast and Midwest, the Foundry region of America, have once again become the cockpit of US politics. Trump realized this. Clinton did not. He won. She lost.

Hillary Clinton was the living embodiment of what I explain in my book Cycles of Change as the Sixth Era of US History, the era of “Evening in America.” That era is gone now, burned out, historically dead.

The hatred and rage comes from both sides. As I vividly describe in Gathering Storm there are two America’s. They have been growing – and growing apart – for half a century since the start of the Vietnam War. And they hate each other like poison.

The New Map of America has elected its first president.

The Gathering Storm is Here

Fri, 11 November 2016

Early in 2015, well before Donald Trump had declared his fateful candidacy for president of the United States, I published my book, Gathering Storm. In it, I predicted that the greatest crisis in U.S history, greater than the Civil War and the Great Depression combined, was about to hit the United States. Now it is here.

October 2016

Whoever wins on November 8, the US electoral map is going to transform in ways not seen since Richard Nixon’s Southern Strategy started to bite in the 1968 election nearly half a century ago.

Most, though not all opinion polls show Republican candidate Donald Trump behind Democratic nominee for US President Hillary Clinton. Right now, the way to bet remains a clear Clinton victory and Democratic takeover of the Senate. Even a trifecta – a Democrat re-conquest of the House of Representatives cannot be ruled out on November 8.

America as Rome, Part 4: After yet another unfortunate short era of scandal and murderous rule under Domitian, the Romans arranged to have a century of really good emperors again from Trajan to Marcus Aurelius.

America as Rome, Part 3: At first, the Roman Emperor Nero was very much like US President Bill Clinton: They were both mass entertainers: They both loved to perform in front of audiences. They were both charismatic and at first wildly popular. They presided over peace and an economic boom.

America as Rome, Part 2: General of the Army Dwight D. Eisenhower, President of the United States from 1953 to 1961, was the model of propriety in private as well as in public. The second Roman Emperor Tiberius by contrast carried out so many inventive orgies on the island of Capri off Naples that they boggle the mind.

America as Rome, Part 1: Empire seemed like a good idea at first in Ancient Rome (also known as the United States): Julius Caesar, like Abraham Lincoln made the mistake of winning a Civil War, unifying the empire and ruling too openly as an emperor.

September 2016

US President Barack Obama’s baiting of Russia and China at the Group of 20 summit in Hangzhou, China, is bad news for the Middle East region and the world at large.

The terror attacks of September 11, 2001 were a wake-up call to America. America promptly woke up and charged off -- in the wrong direction.

Barack Obama bluffed Russia and China – contemptibly – at the G20 summit in Hangzhou this weekend. Weak men bluster and bluff, then imagine they are strong. That is what Obama did in Hangzhou.

Obama thinks he can coast home in the last two months to the presidential election and strut tough and tall on the world stage. The he imagines he can get out of office with Hillary Clinton elected, and be free forever of the consequences of his actions. But Obama is wrong.

The “disappointing” small number of jobs created in the US in August – just over 150,000 – is only the tip of the economic iceberg. President Barack Obama really believes his economic policies are working. But they aren’t – even after he doubled the national debt to $2 trillion in less than eight years just to buy time.

September 2 – The Institute for Supply Management had some unpleasant news for usually serenely complacent US President Barack Obama on Friday. The manufacturing sector is contracting – unexpectedly so – after almost half a year of modest expansion.

Donald Trump hasn’t read my 2015 book Gathering Storm (Amazon-Kindle 2015 and available from, but he continues to fulfill its predictions.

Visiting flood victims in Louisiana and talking with dignity and constructively with the President of Mexico, Trump stood tall on the world stage – a real leader.

August 2016

The weeks following the conclusion of the two major political party conventions in the United States are usually the most decisive in the entire 10-month long national presidential campaign that starts with the New Hampshire primary at the beginning of February and ends with the final national elections in early November.

The days since the end of the Democratic convention in Cleveland have been Worst Week Ever for Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump. He has walked into the carefully prepared trap Democratic campaign strategists prepared for him with Khazr Khan’s personal attack and he has dug his hole deeper ever since.

July 2016

Both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton had highly successful conventions:

This is the fifth successive US presidential campaign I have covered professionally from beginning to end for large news organizations on three continents – including this one – and certain patterns become very familiar over time.

In only the first two days following the end of the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia we have seen nude pictures of Melania Trump splashed over the New York Post – which farcically claims to be conservative, but has been a neocon nest for more than 30 years as everyone should remember.

June 2016

In my previous column I listed six reasons why Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont will be motivated to continue his remarkable underdog campaign for the presidency even if he fails to win the Democratic Party’s nomination in Philadelphia this July.

May 2016

Do those statements sound like a loyal Democratic Party politician prepared to throw in the hat after June 14 and loyally support Hillary Clinton?

Something very fundamental and strange has happened to the geography of American politics. It is so enormous, so obvious and so counter to the accepted wisdom of the past half century that the entire print and broadcast media have missed it completely.

Russian President Vladimir Putin as usual wasted no time in reacting to what he saw as a new Western strategic threat against his country. The same day that the United States activated a land-based Aegis anti-missile radar and interceptor base in Romania – fittingly, on Friday, May 13 - Putin vowed to increase and prioritize military spending to ensure it could be knocked out.

Ever since legendary Field Marshal Bernard Montgomery turned NATO into a credible military deterrent force for the first time as its Deputy Supreme Commander in the1950s, British senior generals have usually served as loyal deputies to the American Supreme Commanders (SACEUR) of the Alliance in Europe. But few, if any, can compare to General Sir Richard Shirreff for outspokenness.

Not one American in 100,000 could tell you what BALTOPS is. Yet that regular, NATO military exercise held every year is stoking tensions with Russia that could lead to nuclear war.

The latest wave of ISIL suicide bomb attacks in Baghdad, killing scores of civilians at a time, has shaken the Iraqi government and army so much they want to move key units back to the capital, potentially stalling the drive on Mosul insisted upon by their US “advisers.”

Most Americans do not realize that their industrial base has shrunken so much and hat their space hardware policy is still in such disarray that even the US Air Force remains dependent on Russian rocket engines to power America’s own Atlas rockets launching the most sensitive and secret satellites into space.

Suddenly, the secret supporters of Donald Trump or so they claim, are crawling like teeming termites out of every rotting wood-work in the Republican Party.

The White House Correspondents Dinner is one of those bizarre Washington rituals of narcissistic self-congratulation between corrupt, incompetent politicians who don’t have a clue and their fawning courtiers called White House correspondents and senior editors who take their preening pretensions seriously.

April 2016

What difference does yet another extreme Islamist terror bomb attack make? Especially in a country that has not known even the illusion of peace in more than 14 years? But Tuesday’s outrage in the Afghan capital of Kabul was different.

Trump Resurgent, Cruz Crunched

Thu, 21 April 2016

Donald Trump could indeed go down to a major defeat for the Republicans as their presidential candidate in November, though he could also do a far better among the core white, working class patriotic core than the GOP has managed since its ludicrously fraudulent portrayal of George W. Bush as a victorious war hero in 2004.

The expected victories of Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton in their respective New York primary races confirm both the parallels and strange contrasts between the unexpected rivalries tearing apart both great American parties.

The 2016 G7 foreign ministers meeting this year is being held in the Japanese port city of Hiroshima, a city of destiny in more ways than is generally realized.

Who leaked the Panama Papers, what was their motivation and what effect will the revelations have? There are no clear answers to any of these questions, but some ironic patterns are already beginning to emerge.

The dragons’ teeth that benighted US policies have sowed in Iraq continue to sprout new nightmares for policymakers in Washington as well as across the entire region.

While shaky and uncertain Iraqi ground forces slowly move forward behind repeated US air strikes and artillery bombardments against ISIL, the Islamic State in Syria and the Levant, their political masters brawled and threw water bottles at each other in the Iraqi parliament on Wednesday.

March 2016

Trans-Atlantic relations have been embarrassed by US President Barack Obama’s petulant comments to The Atlantic magazine published on March 10 that British Prime Minister David Cameron and then-French President Nicolas Sarkozy failed to recognize the responsible role they needed to play in rebuilding Libya after toppling its longtime ruler Muammar Qadhafi with their air campaign in support of rebel forces in 2011. Obama’s comments were in fact perfectly true. But he neglected to note he had even more responsibility for the anarchic chaos that Libya has suffered since.

Bernie Sanders has reason to feel good heading into Tuesday’s primary elections. Not only did he stay alive and survive his anticipated stream of southern defeats by Hillary Clinton, he picked up a useful number of states of his own along the way and now he is poised to show his real strength in the big industrial states with collapsed economies that he knows should be his real source of strength.

Bernie Sanders has reason to feel good heading into Tuesday’s primary elections. Not only did he stay alive and survive his anticipated stream of southern defeats by Hillary Clinton, he picked up a useful number of states of his own along the way and now he is poised to show his real strength in the big industrial states with collapsed economies that he knows should be his real source of strength.

Death of the GOP

Mon, 07 March 2016

However outrageous he can be, Donald Trump intuitively “gets it.” He grasps several of the most important policies vital issues to revive America. If the GOP accepts Trump, it will be transformed. But if it rejects him, it will be destroyed as a national power forever.

Arab leaders concerned about the growing domestic and international drug trades threatening their countries should read very carefully the pattern of individual country reports in the US government’s International Narcotics Control Strategy Report (INCSR) for 2016.

February 2016

Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina have done their job. Seven Republican candidates for the presidency are gone from the presidential race: Four of them in the week after New Hampshire. Now Jeb (Jeb!) Bush has joined them too. The political guillotines have been falling faster than Madame Defarge could knit.

The brief fluttering of hope that the Iowa caucuses set off in the trembling hearts of Hillary Clinton, Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio were extinguished after only eight days. February is still the cruelest month, folks.

Now Americans and Europeans are belatedly waking up to the fact that dragons’ teeth they sowed in Iraq, Afghani­stan and Syria are creating new monsters in of Libya.

Donald Trump may certainly lose out to either Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio yet – but don’t rule him out because of Iowa.

Review of Government Zero: No Borders, No Language, No Culture ~~ by Michael Savage

January 2016

If Hillary Clinton manages to claw her way into the White House, despite the mounting avalanche of evidence to the contrary, she might start by proclaiming a six day week and abolishing Tuesday: The day is clearly bad news for her.

There was nothing for Arabs to celebrate in Obama's speech and much for them to be alarmed about.

Hillary Clinton should have read the glorious Hindu epic, the Mahabharata: It would have warned her not to throw her Ultimate Weapon – former President Bill Clinton – into the presidential race too soon. She made that mistake in 2008 when Bill’s ham-handed moves cost her the presidential nomination of the Democratic Party.

Many in the Arab world have come to think Obama is more committed to preserving his legacy in history than in acting as an honest broker in Middle East disputes.

Debating Issues with Hillary

Mon, 04 January 2016

The most revealing parts of Hillary Clinton’s “town hall meeting” in Portsmouth, New Hampshire, on Tuesday were not her answers but the comments from her questioners.

December 2015

The said news is out: Jeb Bush is no longer trying to defend the copyright trademark he established months ago to the name “Jeb!” (with an exclamation mark added).

This year now ending has been a Reversals of Fortune one for Syria: No ups and downs for its poor, suffering people – It has been a downer for them all the way. But for the different armies, religious movements, political factions and the major powers moving them like chips on a poker table, it was a year of endless ups and downs.

“A new poll of Republican primary and caucus voters by Zogby Analytics shows developer Donald Trump widening his nationwide lead to 25 points over his nearest rival, neurologist Dr. Ben Carson.” What does this poll really mean? It means change is coming to America.

Why is Ben Carson fading and Donald Trump rebounding?

Turkey’s decision to approve the shooting down of a Russian Sukhoi Su-24 bomber that allegedly strayed into its air space on November 24 brings the Syrian civil war crisis into an entirely new, uncharted, potential era of potentially limitless danger. In the words of Thomas Jefferson, it is a fire-bell tolling in the night. It is the world of danger I describe in my new book, Gathering Storm: The Seventh Era of American History & the Coming Crises That Will Lead to It, (Amazon-Kindle 2015). It is a warning of looming, uncontrollable war.

November 2015

From the Jeb Bush Right to the Hillary Clinton Left, all the voices of mediocrity and privilege in a suffering America agree: There is no substance to Donald Trump.

Change is here: It is hammering at the doors of bankrupt political system and a bankrupt America. New challengers are pressing new ideas on the two big, tired old parties.

In the coming cyclical crisis about to sweep the United States, the Southwest can expect to face one of the worst upheavals of any part of the nation.

No region of America has fallen further in the past half century than the Industrial Northeast, memorably dubbed by author Joel Garreau as “The Foundry.”

Clinton’s environmental politics were hated by most people who actually lived in the Rocky Mountain West and the Sunbelt. They felt the growing pressure of property prices and soaring utility costs.

California has also been paralyzed by what Garreau called the two conflicting "nations" that eternally war within the state. They are the Ecotopia environmental utopians of the coastal strip and the north, against the free market, "Tex-Mex" culture of Los Angeles and California’s south.

Obama did not win a record landslide. But he won the most decisive Democratic victory in 44 years since Lyndon Johnson's 1964 landslide over Sen. Barry Goldwater, another Arizona Republican.

Smallpox is the greatest killer disease in the history of the human race and also the most contagious.

Treat the Russians with Respect

Mon, 16 November 2015

I do not worry about cosmic convergences, shifting ice caps, global warming, the Trilateral Commission, the Catholic Church, a united Germany, the Second Vatican Council, the Elders of Zion, the Freemasons, the European Union or the ecumenical movement and neither should you. Let’s get real.

Patterns of 21st Century War

Mon, 16 November 2015

Twenty first century wars will be fought with everything from thermonuclear bombs and poison gas to machetes – and remember – you heard it here first.

The bigger they are, the harder they fall. It's been a common delusion throughout history that if you build a bigger ship, it'll be tougher to sink. Maybe even unsinkable. But no ship has ever been unsinkable -- from the Titanic to the Bismarck.

New centuries usually bring well-meaning hopes that will usher in a bright new world of peace, prosperity and international cooperation. Don’t believe a word of it. The hard evidence of modern world history tells a very different story. The clash of nations and civilizations is coming on an unprecedented scale.

The United States faces a wide spectrum of 21st century security threats ranging from deliberately-induced smallpox epidemics to annihilation with a 15-minute warning time by Russian nuclear submarines armed with multiple independently-targeted reentry vehicle (MIRV) warheads.

Cycles of Change: The Three Great Cycles of American History & the Coming Crises That Will Lead to the Fourth

Cycles of Change: Excerpt #1

Tue, 10 November 2015

A thunderstorm of political change is exploding over the United States of America. The destruction of the World Trade Towers and the murder of 3,000 Americans were the flash of lightning heralding its coming. The great financial and economic crisis that started seven years later, in September 2008, confirmed its arrival.

Cycles of Change: The Three Great Cycles of American History & the Coming Crises That Will Lead to the Fourth

Cycles of Change: Excerpt #2

Tue, 10 November 2015

Successive 32-40-year eras have defined United States history since the Constitution was ratified. But within that pattern, each two consecutive eras form a larger 72-80 year cycle. The historical transition between eras at the end of the 72-80 year cycle has always been far more severe.

Gathering Storm: The Seventh Era of American History, & the Coming Crises That Will Lead to It

Gathering Storm: Excerpt #1

Tue, 10 November 2015

Ten enormous dangers threaten the United States and the American people in the coming years. Any one of them could erupt with devastating consequences for the future of America. The American people, in fact, face the possibility of 10 updated, 21st versions of the legendary Ten Plagues of Egypt enumerated in such chilling detail in the Book of Exodus in the Bible.

Gathering Storm: The Seventh Era of American History, & the Coming Crises That Will Lead to It

Gathering Storm: Excerpt #2

Tue, 10 November 2015

The division of America between ‘red’ and ‘blue,’ heartland and high tech, patriotic and internationalist, is not just some fancy myth cooked up by stereotyping reporters. It rests on the considered decisions recorded every four years by more than 120 million voting Americans. The great red heartland is indeed Wal-Mart Nation.

Cycles of Change: The Three Great Cycles of American History & the Coming Crises That Will Lead to the Fourth

Gathering Storm: The Seventh Era of American History, & the Coming Crises That Will Lead to It

That Should Still Be Us: How Thomas Friedman’s Flat World Myths are Keeping Us Flat on Our Backs

Shifting Superpowers: The New & Emerging Relationship between the United States, China & India

The Politically Incorrect Guide to the Middle East