America’s Cycles of Change

Forecasts

Martin Sieff has specialized in U.S. global economic and national security issues for more than a quarter of a century in his work as senior foreign correspondent for The Washington Times and as Chief News Analyst for United Press International:

  • In February 2014, he predicted that the toppling of the legitimate democratically-elected government of Ukraine in a violent coup would set off civil war in Ukraine, and a dangerous confrontation between the West and Russia.
  • In February 2011, he predicted that Western military force would be required to topple Col. Muammar Qadhafi in Libya.
  • In February 2011, he predicted that President Hosni Mubarak in Egypt would eventually be succeeded by a fiercely anti-Western Muslim Brotherhood-controlled government. 
  • In February 2011, he warned that the Arab Spring series of democratic protests sweeping the Arab world would not create any successful, stable democracy but would only boost the power of extreme jihadist and ultra-violent Islamist forces throughout the region.
  • In February 2011, he predicted that President Bashir Assad of Syria would not be toppled by the Arab Spring protests, and would fight a ferocious civil war to stay in power.
  • In June 2009 he predicted that the wave of popular unrest sweeping Iran would be successfully suppressed and that the hardline government of President Mahmud Ahmedinejad would remain in power.
  • Starting in early spring 2009, he predicted that the fracking revolution and the industrial policies of the Obama administration would lead to a limited revival of U.S. manufacturing and industry.
  • In October 2008, he predicted President Obama’s victory margin in the presidential election to within 1 percent. He also predicted the Democratic victory margin in the House of Representatives to within 5 seats and in the Senate to within 2 seats.
  • In the spring and summer of 2008 he predicted Russia’s August 2008 invasion of Georgia.
  • In 2006 he predicted that the Republicans would lose control of both houses of Congress in the November mid-term elections.
  • In 2004-2005, he predicted that the issue of US border security with Mexico and the strengthening of border defenses would become a major and continuing political issue in the Southwest United States.
  • In 2004-2005, he predicted the eventual success of Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon’s security barrier/fence in shutting down the Second Palestinian Intifada.
  • Starting in May 2003, he predicted the escalating guerrilla war against U.S. forces in Iraq and the inability of U.S. forces to eradicate it following the rapid conquest of the country in March-April 2003..
  • From 2003 through 2006, he produced the only weekly regular analysis of the Iraq war in weekly columns for UPI. He successfully predicted the serious, enduring nature of the Sunni Muslim insurrection in Iraq as early as May 2003 and in 2005-2006 correctly predicted the counter-insurgency strategy and tactics that would be required to contain it.
  • In 2003, he predicted that the Saudi security forces would successfully eradicate al-Qaeda in its unsuccessful attempts to destabilize the country.
  • From 2003 onwards, he predicted the US imposed democratic political system in Iraq would only be maintained as long as there were large numbers of American troops to support it.
  • In 2002, he predicted that the unregulated mania on Wall Street for speculating in derivatives would lead to the worst financial crisis and meltdown since the Great Depression.
  • Starting in 2002, he predicted and repeatedly warned that the economic policies of the Bush administration would result in the worst financial crisis since the Wall Street Crash and set off the worst economic recession since 1937.
  • From December 2001, he predicted the failures of U.S. nation building in Afghanistan.
  • In 2001, he predicted the inevitable collapse of the U.S. housing bubble.
  • In June 2001, he predicted that the Shanghai Cooperation Organization set up by Russia, China and the four Central Asian nations would become the most powerful military alliance in the world.
  • Starting in 2000, he consistently predicted the accelerating disintegration of the U.S. industrial and manufacturing sectors.
  • In 2000, he predicted that President Vladimir Putin would succeed in reversing the disintegration of Russia and would restore its economy and military strength.
  • Starting in 1994, he predicted the inevitable breakdown and failure of the 1993 seven-year Oslo Peace Process between Israel and the Palestinian Authority.
  • In 1990, he predicted the coming disintegration of Yugoslavia and that it would set off a series of civil wars.
  • In June 1990, he predicted Saddam Hussein’s invasion and conquest of Kuwait.
  • In 1989 he predicted that the People’s Republic of China would successfully repress the mass democracy protests in Tiananmen Square and elsewhere and remain a strong, authoritarian state.
  • In 1986 he predicted that Ukraine would become an independent nation again for the first time in more than 330 years (apart from a brief period during the Russian Civil War in 1918-19).
  • In 1986 he predicted the disintegration of the Soviet Union within a decade.
  • In 1989, he predicted that after Tiananmen, China’s economic growth and rise would accelerate, not slow down.