America’s Cycles of Change

Clinton Clearly Ahead in Presidential Race, But Surprises Still Possible

Mon, 24 October 2016

Most, though not all opinion polls show Republican candidate Donald Trump behind Democratic nominee for US President Hillary Clinton. Right now, the way to bet remains a clear Clinton victory and Democratic takeover of the Senate. Even a trifecta – a Democrat re-conquest of the House of Representatives cannot be ruled out on November 8.

There are certainly still feasible scenarios under which Trump could pull off a kind “super-Brexit” come-from-behind win. Polls show him leading or very competitive in the key battleground states of Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Iowa.

However, Trump must also land Pennsylvania and probably Wisconsin as well and make sure he hangs on to Arizona and Texas. He is losing big in Virginia. So his road to 270 in the Electoral College is by no means assured.

Had Trump been up against Vice President Joe Biden, First Lady Michelle Obama – a brilliant natural national campaigner if ever there was one – or even maverick romantic liberal and fake socialist Bernie Sanders – he would be dead meat by now. Only the extraordinary passive antipathy of scores of millions of Americans to Hillary Clinton has kept him in with a chance. His base is passionate. But by itself it is not broad enough.

We therefore currently predict a Clinton victory. But leave major caveats to that. The mainstream media and political establishments of both major parties are now more discredited even than they were on the eve of the 1932 presidential election after three years of the Great Depression.

We are in uncharted territory here.

The old Chinese warning applies: “May you never live in interesting times.”

These are very interesting times.